WASHINGTON — As the United
States begins what could be a lengthy military campaign against the Islamic
State, intelligence and law enforcement officials said another Syrian group,
led by a shadowy figure who was once among Osama bin Laden’s inner circle,
posed a more direct threat to America and Europe.
American officials said that
the group called Khorasan had emerged in the past year as the cell in Syria
that may be the most intent on hitting the United States or its installations
overseas with a terror attack. The officials said that the group is led by
Muhsin al-Fadhli, a senior Qaeda operative who, according to the State
Department, was so close to Bin Laden that he was among a small group of people
who knew about the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks before they were launched.
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There is almost no public
information about the Khorasan group, which was described by several
intelligence, law enforcement and military officials as being made up of Qaeda
operatives from across the Middle East, South Asia and North Africa. Members of
the cell are said to be particularly interested in devising terror plots using
concealed explosives. It is unclear who, besides Mr. Fadhli, is part of the
Khorasan group.
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The director of national
intelligence, James R. Clapper Jr., said on Thursday that “in terms of threat
to the homeland, Khorasan may pose as much of a danger as the Islamic State.”
Some American officials and
national security experts said the intense focus on the Islamic State had
distorted the picture of the terrorism threat that has emerged from the chaos
of Syria’s civil war, and that the more immediate threats still come from
traditional terror groups like Khorasan and the Nusra Front, which is Al Qaeda’s
designated affiliate in Syria.
Mr. Fadhli, 33, has been
tracked by American intelligence agencies for at least a decade. According to
the State Department, before Mr. Fadhli arrived in Syria, he had been living in
Iran as part of a small group of Qaeda operatives who had fled to the country
from Afghanistan after the Sept. 11 attacks. Iran’s government said the group
was living under house arrest, but the exact circumstances of the Qaeda
operatives were disputed for years, and many members of the group ultimately
left Iran for Pakistan, Syria and other countries.
In 2012, the State Department
identified Mr. Fadhli as Al Qaeda’s leader in Iran, directing “the movement of
funds and operatives” through the country. A $7 million reward was offered for
information leading to his capture. The same State Department release said he
was working with wealthy “jihadist donors” in Kuwait, his native country, to
raise money for Qaeda-allied rebels in Syria.
In a speech in Brussels in
2005, President George W. Bush referred to Mr. Fadhli as he thanked European
countries for their counterterrorism assistance, noting that Mr. Fadhli had
assisted terrorists who bombed a French oil tanker in 2002 off the coast of
Yemen. That attack killed one and spilled 50,000 barrels of oil that stretched
across 45 miles of coastline.
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The Islamic State, also known
as ISIS or ISIL, is viewed as more focused on consolidating territory it has
amassed in Syria and Iraq than on attacking the West. Some even caution that
military strikes against the Islamic State could antagonize that group into
planning attacks on Western targets, and even benefit other militant
organizations if more moderate factions of the rebellion are not ready to take
power on the ground.
The Islamic State’s recent
statements, including a video using a British captive as a spokesman, have
sought to deter American action against the group and threatened attacks only
as revenge for American strikes.
At the same time, the rise of
the Islamic State has blunted the momentum of its rival groups in Syria,
including the Nusra Front, once considered to be among the most capable in the
array of Syrian rebel groups. The Islamic State’s expansion across northern
Iraq and in oil-rich regions of eastern Syria has sapped some of the Nusra
Front’s resources and siphoned some of its fighters — who are drawn by the
Islamic State’s battlefield successes and declaration of a caliphate, the
longtime dream of many jihadists.
It is difficult to assess the
seriousness and scope of any terror plots that Khorasan, the Nusra Front or
other groups in Syria might be planning. In several instances in the past year,
Nusra and the Islamic State have used Americans who have joined their ranks to
carry out attacks inside Syria — including at least one suicide bombing —
rather than returning them to the United States to strike there.
Beyond the militant groups
fighting for control of territory, Syria has become a magnet for Islamic extremists
from other nations who have used parts of the country as a sanctuary to plot
attacks.
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“What you have is a growing
body of extremists from around the world who are coming in and taking advantage
of the ungoverned areas and creating informal ad hoc groups that are not
directly aligned with ISIS or Nusra,” a former senior law enforcement official
said.
Spokesmen for the C.I.A. and
the White House declined to comment for this article.
The grinding war in Syria,
well into its fourth year, has led to a constant shifting of alliances among
the hard-line rebel groups.
Ayman al-Zawahiri, the head of
Al Qaeda, anointed the Nusra Front as its official branch in Syria and cut ties
with the Islamic State early this year after it refused to follow his orders to
fight only in Iraq. Officials said that Khorasan was an offshoot of the Nusra
Front. According to a new report by the Bipartisan Policy Center, a nonprofit
research and analysis organization, the rifts among these various groups
“threaten to create a conflict throughout the jihadist movement that is no
longer confined to Syria and Iraq.”
While Nusra has been weakened,
it remains one of the few rebel organizations that has active branches
throughout Syria. Analysts view the organization as well placed to benefit from
American strikes that might weaken the Islamic State.
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Jennifer Cafarella, a Syria
analyst with the Institute for the Study of War in Washington, said that
American strikes could benefit the Nusra Front if the United States did not
ensure that there was another force ready to take power on the ground.
“There is definitely a threat
that, if not conducted as a component of a properly tailored strategy within
Syria, the American strikes would allow the Nusra Front to fill a vacuum in
eastern Syria,” she said.
She noted that the Nusra Front
had been the primary force in the eastern province of Deir al-Zour before it
was pushed out by the Islamic State earlier this year, and that the group had
maintained better relationships with the local tribes than ISIS had. This could
make it easier for the group to return if ISIS is chased out by American airstrikes.
While the Nusra Front does not
openly call for attacks on the West, it remains loyal to Mr. Zawahiri, whose
clout among jihadists has waned with the rise of the Islamic State.
A great deal remains uncertain
about the Nusra Front’s ultimate aims inside Syria. Hamza al-Shimali, the head
of the American-backed rebel group the Hazm Movement, said that he and his
allies did not trust the Nusra Front. He said he feared that one day he would
have to fight the Nusra Front in addition to the Syrian government and the
Islamic State.
American intelligence
officials estimate that since the Syrian conflict began, about 15,000
foreigners, including more than 100 Americans and 2,000 Europeans, have
traveled to the country to fight alongside rebel groups. Syria’s porous borders
make it relatively easy to get in and out of the country, raising concerns
among Western officials that without markings on their passports they could
slip back undetected into Europe or the United States.
Mark Mazzetti and Michael S.
Schmidt reported from Washington, and Ben Hubbard from Gaziantep, Turkey. Eric
Schmitt contributed reporting from Washington.
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